Tuesday, September 27

"WATER COOLER TALK" -- WILL "STAN THE MAN" FORM IN THE GULF?

Goodness! If you live in the Gulf Coast region of the United States, you ought to read this post from "SciGuy" (Eric Berger) who, I should add, acquitted himself well during the ramp-up to Rita. He deserves kudos (but I'd rather he not have written this piece!).

An excerpt:

As much as this pains me to say: Maybe.

In the course of reporting a story on a cool front headed our way Thursday (don't get your hopes up too much, it's a weak one), I called Chris Hebert, a forecaster at ImpactWeather.

Chris is a sharp guy, and a crack hurricane forecaster, so I asked him about the disturbance. Here's what he said:

1. There is potential for development, with some rotation characteristic of a tropical storm already present in the upper atmosphere.

2. Chances are better than not the system will become Tropical Storm Stan near the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday or Friday.

3. Neither Rita nor Katrina stirred waters in the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico, so conditions there remain ripe for intensification. The same model that predicted those storms could reach category-5 status says "Stan" could become as strong as a category-4.

You tellin' me, Eric, that in a matter of days we'll be moving all of the stuff from the yard back into the garage one more time and testing the Houston-Galveston evacuation plan all over again? Come on, Eric -- give us a break!!!